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April 15, 2008

Big California Quake Inevitable

Filed under: Science — admin @ 6:39 pm

It seems that a big earthquake in California is inevitable in the next 30 years. Even the normally cautious scientists now say there is a 99% chance (that 1% wiggle room is ‘being cautious’) that California will see a major earthquake (magnitude 6.7 or higher) within the next 30 years.

Why not just give it back to Mexico and let them deal with it? Can you imagine what the costs will be? I’m sure the rates for quake insurance have already doubled at the news, and that is just in anticipation. We have enough problems with global warming and increased hurricanes and flooding.

It is not like earthquakes are anything new for California. Did you know that more than 10,000 quakes rock the state every year? Most of them are too soft to be felt, but seismic instruments measure that number. There have ‘only’ been two large quakes in California in the past 20 years: the Northridge quake in 1993 killed more than 50 people and injured over 7,000 — and that was just 6.7 magnitude; and the Loma Prieta quake in 1989, which was slightly bigger at 6.9 magnitude, and killed 63 people and caused over $6 billion in damages. The 1908 San Francisco earthquake is estimated to have been about 7.8 magnitude (remember 7 magnitude is 10 times as strong as 6 — it is a logarithmic scale). Imagine something like that in San Diego or San Francisco today?

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