Yale University economist Robert Shiller, an influential economist who predicted the current home sale slump, is predicting things will get worse — much worse — before they get better. Shiller said:
There’s a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30 percent drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006. I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more…
The Great Depression was sparked by the collapse of the stock market; what will call the depression sparked by the collapse of the housing market? Sometimes people have to move — in the Midwestern States where the crisis is at its worst, people are moving away because they can no longer find work where they live now. If you can not sell your house when you move, a realtor will suggest a ’short sale’ or the bank will take it and sell it for you (foreclosure), either way the home will sell for less than it is worth.
This is how the rich get richer while the poor suffer. It is a great time to be buying up houses if you have the resources available to finance them. People have to live somewhere, so those whose homes have been foreclosed-on will be renting houses — oftentimes sliding from middle to lower class in the process. The landlord need not worry, the law will ensure he can evict anyone who can not keep up payments, regardless of their reasons.
There is a bit of a furor over this ad, run in Mexico, that shows the pre-1848 borders of Mexico, when Calfornia, Texas and everything in-between was all part of Mexico:
Why are Americans in an uproar over historical fact? Is it that they do not want to be reminded of how they stole half of Mexico in an unjust and unprovoked war? Or is it that the reminder of where those lands came from conflicts with their strenuous efforts to keep Mexicans out of them? It is kind of unsettling to the Texan belittling the ‘damn foreigners’ to find that the family in question may have been in Texas before Sam Houston. And it is upsetting to Californian sensibilities to remember their oh-so-ecological cliff-top house is perched on land stolen from the ancestors of their gardener.
But really, others say, why not go a few years further back in history and show the entire continent belonging to Native Americans, before the English and Spanish and French stole the land from them? That could get complicated since the locals did not consider themselves one nation, but thousands of independent entities — who regular conquered territory from one another.
Here at the coffeeshop we say it is all nonsense. Nobody deserves compensation for the wrongs done to their ancestors, or we would all be in for a slice of the pie. But that doesn’t mean we should forget the lessons of history — be it the Mexican War or the Holocaust — we need occasional reminders of the sins of our ancestors to shed light on today’s decisions. Had Junior Bush thought of justice before invading Iraq we would be living in a safer and more hopeful world today. The living have enough of their own actions to be held accountable for, we need not look to the dead to find evil deeds.
Over at Bum Marketing Method, Travis outlines six steps he uses to evaluate the value of a potential niche market for Internet marketing. Seems like good information, so thought I’d pass it along. If you think it might help you, check out his site.
- Mind Share — how often do people think about the niche subject? If they think about it daily or many times a day, it is much better than once in a while.
- Emotion — which factors do people have the most emotional reaction to? The more emotional involvement, the stronger people feel about the subject (for good or for ill) the better.
- Talk — is it something they talk about? Are there chat boards or other discussions on-line about the subject? The more talk, the better potential the niche has.
- Cost — how much does it cost to get involved in the niche? The more the better. People are more willing to spend money on an expensive activity, than on one that is free; they are already used to spending money on the niche.
- Competition — how much are other marketers interested in the niche? Actually, more is better with this factor — strong interest by other marketers is a sure indication there is money to to be made in this niche.
- Devil’s Advocate — if the niche meets all those other criteria, think for a moment as if you were involved in the niche, and think about what excuses you would use to NOT spend money on it (too much already available free, trust only authoritative figures such as for medical matters, etc. etc.)
Use these criteria to evaluate a potential niche, and you have a much better chance of success.